BREXIT was not, and is still not the will of the electorate,

the citizens or the residents of the UK

IT IS SIMPLY NOT THE "WILL OF THE PEOPLE"

Staffordshire University Emeritus Professor, Adrian Low, analyses all the post-BREXIT referendum polls below

(LAST UPDATED 4th June 2018)

MATERIAL FOR PUBLICATION

CLICK HERE


Whilst the UK population seems to think the government will continue with Brexit come what may,

when asked "With hindsight do you think it was right to vote to leave the EU" , the answer is now, permanently NO.


Summary of 67 polls asking GB/UK citizens for preference from all polling sources since the referendum

Data sources and websites are listed below, 62 of the sources are adapted from YouGov (see here)


Commentary on the latest polls can be found here

Photo of Adrian Low

  • The last 34 polls, from May 2017 onwards show a slow but steady growth in Remain preference of about 1% more every two months.

  • Prior to the referendum 58% of the polls were for Remain, 35% for Leave and 7% for a tie. 

  • Since the referendum 52 out of 69 polls, i.e. 75% of them have been for Remain and 25% for Leave

  • One  key factor is provided by those who did not vote (including new 18 year olds now eligible to vote).  At least 20% more of them would now vote Remain rather than vote Leave. (see third graph below). 

  • A large group of Remainers simply did not vote.

  • An increasing number of Leave voters are now preferring to remain, whilst remain voters are sticking with their preference.

  • Turnout was 72% at the referendum which is about the average turnout in referendums and general elections since the war.  A second referendum would be likely to have an 83% turnout, based on preferences now expressed in the YouGov polls.


MINI KEY FACTS (updated to June 2018)
Key fact for the week: It is a billions of times more likely that the world will
suffer a wipe-out of all life by an asteroid collision tomorrow,
than the last 29 'Remain' polls from YouGov*, are all wrong
Every hour since August 2016, more than 80 leave voters change their minds whilst less than 20 remain voters change their minds Since August 2016, the rate of drop in support for Leave from leave voters has been five times the rate of drop in support for remain from remain voters 5.6 million, and growing, of those who failed to vote in 2016 now say they want to remain in the EU. 3 million and falling, of those who failed to vote in 2016 now say they want to leave the EU
 
Since the referendum, based on the 60 YouGov polls, the swing to remain, in GB adults is 6.6% and growing, substantially overturning the 3.8% majoirty for Brexit.

The majority for remain amongst the 12.9 million who failed to vote in 2016 but who now express a preference, has been steadily increasing.

All things being equal, even without the non-voters from last time, Remain would win a referendum now as new 18 year-olds vote and older voters no longer vote. It is now more than 29%, more than twice as much as necessary to overturn the referendum result.
The polls, and demographic modelling show that none of the three groups: (citizens, residents and electorate) of the UK+Gibrater want to leave the EU. If a second referendum happened now, predicting the trend from all the 60 YouGov polls since the referendum, there would be a 6.6% lead for remain with a 2.6 million majority. Prior to the referendum 58% of the polls were for remaining in the EU. Since the referendum 75% of the polls are for remaining in the EU. On average, the swing to Labour in each constituency in the 2017 election was 58% greater if the candidate had voted against Article 50

Every day about 2000 new 18 year-olds can vote while 2000 older voters leave the register, so leave loses 650 votes while remain gains 420 votes, i.e. 1000 more majority for remain every day.

27% of the UK voted to leave the EU. If all adult residents and citizens of the UK were allowed to vote now, there would be a remain majority of approximately 4.7 million, with 34% of the population voting remain Assuming the steady increase preference for Remain continues linearly, the normal electorate majority for Remain on Brexit day will be 10.9%. All the Labour candidates who voted against Article 50 and who stood for election in 2016, retained their seats

*note that the polls are adapted to reflect the referendum vote across the whole of the UK+Gibraltar, YouGov only sample from England, Wales and Scotland


The YouGov 62 polls trend

Results are shown as majority (above the line) for Remain, or below the line for Leave.

The two sets of numbers are - blue thin lines YouGov GB (only) raw figures. 

The red lines - the same figures with the following three adjustments:

(a) applied to UK+Gib, (b) re-weighted (to reflect the actual voting numbers in the referendum across the UK+Gib), (c) with don't knows removed.

In both cases the since June 2017, the preference is strongly for Remain.

The regression lines are 5th order polynomial.

Data from YouGov (here)


What is the probability that these polls are all wrong and actually the country wants to leave the EU?

 

YouGov in their polling report that " All polls are subject to a wide range of potential sources of error.

On the basis of the historical record of the polls at recent general elections, there is a 9 in 10 chance that the true value of a party’s support lies within 4 points of the estimates provided by this poll, and a 2 in 3 chance that they lie within 2 points.

Using these very rough 'party support' measures, 18 of the 29 polls show a majority of 4% or more for Remain. The chance that one of them is in error by over 4% is no more than 1/10th or 0.1. The chance that they are all over-reading (you multiply the probabilities) is 0.118. Another 8 polls show a majority between 2% and 4%, so the chances they are all wrong is 0.338. Discounting the other three (each with less than 2% majority), the chance that all these polls are wrong - well you multiply all the probabilities together and you get less than

2 chances in 10,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

or, 1.5 x 10-22 which is incredibly unlikely.

This is many orders of magnitude less likely, according to NASA, than the mass extinction of the entire world by an asteroid tomorrow.

In other words, the electorate definitely does not want Brexit.

Does Mrs May know this?
 

 

What do those who chose not to vote last time, now want?

 

 Note the commentary and methodology used both below and in the supporting webpage here.  (The regression lines are 2nd order polynomial).  Note the widening gap.

 

PERCENTAGE OF NON-VOTERS, AT THE REFERENDUM, NOW EXPRESSING A PREFERENCE IN THE YOUGOV POLLS

Blue dots and line are preference for Leave, Red dots and line are preference for Remain

The diverging lines are 2nd order polynomial regressions on the two data sets. 

Note that 21% (the current gap on the right) of 12.9 million (who did not vote) is 2.7 million, i.e. more than twice the majority (1.3 million) for LEAVE at the referendum

It means that, all other things being equal (which they are not!) if less than half of them voted in a second referendum, the result would be reversed.

Data from YouGov (here)


 

Leave voters are increasingly changing their minds, Remain voters are steady

 

 

About 12% of Remain voters have accepted the outcome, and that has been fairly constant, so 88%

of Remain voters continue to express their preference for remaining in the EU (Red line)

Initially Leave voters were more sure of their decision than Remain voters,

but their support for Brexit has steadily decreased at the rate of about 1% every 2.5 months.(Blue line)

(The lines are linear regressions.) Data from YouGov (here)


 

 

On that basis, what would be the result of a second referendum tomorrow?

 

Up to the 4th June 2018 poll (averaging the growth since July 2016)

REMAIN wins with a 2.7 million (6.9%) majority

turnout 80%+.

 

There are two elements...

1. The people who voted last time - how have they changed their minds?

Of the original voters in the referendum, those still expressing a preference are now almost equal at about 15.5 million.

Support for Leave has been dropping constantly, support for Remain has been on the rise.

 

Add 2. Those who did not vote last time who now have a preference. 

They should be added to those who voted last time in the graph above.

Of the 12.9 million who did not vote at the referendum who are now expressing a preference, a majority of more than 29% want to Remain.

So in a referendum tomorrow, assuming those who express a preference, vote, the result would be a large majority (21.2 million:18.5 million) for Remain.

Data from YouGov (here), the regression lines in both of the above are all fifth order polynomials from July 2016


 

What if we project to Brexit day?

 

 

 

 

REMAIN


LEAVE

 

The green line is a best quadratic fit and the black line the best linear fit.

By Brexit day, if figures continue as they have been, the UK electors (with the right to vote) will have a majority of between 10% and 15% for remaining in the EU.

All data adapted from YouGov.

 


Voting intention and Brexit preference of the main political parties

% of the voting preference

The 24th April 2018 YouGov Poll showing voting preference and Brexit preference. Note 71% of Labour voters want to stay in the EU


List of polls analysed with links to the poll details

 

Referendum day  ►

 Day 6

note 1

29th June

 Day 7

note 8

30th June

 Day 9

note 2

2nd July

 Day 10

note 7

3rd July

 Day 13

note 3

6th July

 Day 15

note 4

8th July

 Day 30

note 5

23rd July

 Day 40

note 6

2nd Aug

 Day 46

note 9

8th August

 Day 60

note 10

23rd Aug

 Day 68

note 11

31st Aug

 Day 82

note 12

13th Sept

 Day 112

note 13

11th Oct

 Day 121

note 14

26th Oct

 Day 144

note 15

14th Nov

 Day 158

note 16

28th Nov

 Day 164

note 17

4th Dec

 Day 178

note 22

18th Dec

 Day 194

note 18

3rd Jan

 Day 200

note 19

9th Jan

 

Vote

Newsnight/

MORI poll

BMG poll

ITV/

YouGov poll of Wales

IPsos MORI poll

Independent/

ORB poll on 2nd referendum

BBC/ComRes poll to

stay in single market

YouGov/

Eurotrac poll*

Times/

YouGov poll*

Times/

YouGov poll*

Times/

YouGov poll*

Times/

YouGov poll*

Times/

YouGov poll*

Times/

YouGov poll*

BMG poll

Times/

YouGov poll*

Times/

YouGov poll*

Times/

YouGov

poll

CNN/

Comres poll

Times/

YouGov poll*

Times/

YouGov poll*

 
3.8% MAJORITY 0.27% MAJORITY 10.58% MAJORITY  6% MAJORITY  14.6% MAJORITY 9.2% MAJORITY 3.5% MAJORITY 0.61% MAJORITY 3.12% MAJORITY 0.72% MAJORITY 1.27% MAJORITY 0.60% MAJORITY 2.44% MAJORITY 1.33% MAJORITY 2.06% MAJORITY 0.97% MAJORITY 2.64% MAJORITY 0.5% MAJORITY 3.3% MAJORITY 1.7% MAJORITY 1.0% MAJORITY  

for

LEAVE

 for REMAIN  for REMAIN  for REMAIN  for REMAIN   for REMAIN  for REMAIN  for REMAIN  for LEAVE  for REMAIN  for REMAIN  for REMAIN  for LEAVE  for REMAIN  for REMAIN  for REMAIN  for REMAIN  for LEAVE  for REMAIN  for LEAVE  for LEAVE  

 

 Day 208

note 20

17th Jan

 ►

 Day 222

note 20

31st Jan

 Day 234

note 20

12th Feb

 Day 243

note 21

20th Feb

 Day 243

note 20

21st Feb

 Day 250

note 20

28th Feb

 Day 234

note 23

7th March

 Day 264

note 20

14th Mar

 Day 270

note 20

20th Mar

 Day 276

note 20

26th March

 Day 286

note 21

5th Apr

 Day 293 onwards

12th Apr

Times/

YouGov

poll

Times/

YouGov poll*

Times/

YouGov poll*

 

IPsos MORI poll

Times/

YouGov poll*

Times/

YouGov poll*

l

Times/

BMG poll

 

Times/

YouGov poll*

Times/

YouGov poll*

Times/

YouGov poll*

*

IPsos MORI poll

Times/

YouGov polls*

1.1% MAJORITY 2.4% MAJORITY 2.9% MAJORITY  4.9% MAJORITY  3.0% MAJORITY  1.2% MAJORITY 1.1% MAJORITY 0.3% MAJORITY 2.2% MAJORITY 0.3% MAJORITY  2.6% MAJORITY note 20
 for LEAVE  for LEAVE  for LEAVE  for REMAIN  for REMAIN  for REMAIN  for LEAVE   for REMAIN  for REMAIN  for REMAIN  for LEAVE and from here

 


 

Commentaries, notes and dashboard

 Commentary on latest polls

 Notes on methodology/statistics

 Dashboard to model a future vote

 Adrian Low profile

 Contact information

Author's BREXIT publications

Brexit was not the will of the British People, it never has been. London School of Economics(1)
In some respects the Brexit referendum was a violation of human rights, London School of Economics(2)
An expert has pointed out the problem with Brexit that no one talks about, Independent
Brexit - not the will of the people, nor is it likely to become so, Esharp
 In hindsight, was Brexit the right decision? The answer is no, the electorate doesn't want Brexit, Reasons2Remain
We want to Remain, say 11 out of 13 polls since the Brexit vote, New European:
Brexit is not the will of most people in the UK, Reasons2Remain
New study gave no option to reject Brexit, it's not correct that most Britains want a hard Brexit, Reasons2Remain

 

 


AUTHOR : Professor Adrian Low

a.a.low@staffs.ac.uk  I am happy to talk to groups about this data if you contact me and pay expenses!

My own personal commentary on the referendum itself is here and my case against Brexit from a Christian perspective is argued here and on video here