BREXIT is absolutely not the will of the electorate,

the citizens or the residents of the UK

The EU elections demonstrated that, when pro and anti Brexit parties are combined, the Remainers have a majority.

 


Staffordshire University Emeritus Professor, Adrian Low , analyses all the post-BREXIT referendum polls below

(LAST UPDATED 15th October 2019)


Whilst the UK population seems to think the government will continue with Brexit come what may,

when asked "With hindsight do you think it was right to vote to leave the EU", the answer is permanently NO.

 

 YouGov is the primary data souce


Summary of 118 polls asking GB/UK citizens for preference from various polling sources since the referendum

Data sources and websites are listed below, 109 of the sources are adapted from YouGov (see here)

(YouGov Simply because they have consistently asked the same question)

Please email me if you want an xlsx copy of all the data.

Survation polls showing a similar trend can be found here and here


Latest commentary on the latest polls can be found here



Photo of Adrian Low

  • The last 78 polls, from May 2017 onwards showed a slow growth, and now steady consolidation, of Remain preference which has levelled and decreased slightly in the last six months.
  • The last 18 polls suggest a levelling out at about 10% majority for Remain (compared to 3.8% majority for Leave at the referendum).
  • Prior to the referendum 48% of the polls were for Remain, 46% for Leave and 7% for a tie (see FT here). 
  • Since the referendum 103 out of 118 polls, i.e. 87% of them have been for Remain and 13% for Leave
  • One  key factor is provided by those who did not vote (including new 18 year olds now eligible to vote).  Remain has a two to one majority in this group.  . (see third graph below). 

  • It seems that a large group of Remainers simply did not vote.

  • Since the referendum a relatively constant 11% of remain voters have accepted the outcome with 9 out of 10 still preferring to remain.  However Leave support in Leave voters has dropped from 91% down to, about 83%.  1 in 6 leave Leave voters no longer think it right to leave.  This means if the only people voting were the voters from last time, the preference would now be to remain.

  • Turnout was 72% at the referendum which is slightly below average turnout in referendums and general elections since 1945.  A second referendum would be likely to have an 83% turnout, based on preferences now expressed in the YouGov polls.




  Other polling companies
Similar graphics to the one above, are provided by, for example,

What the UK thinks (using YouGov data)

And BMG's poll - their own data:

Note that both polls do not include Northern Ireland or Gibraltar





MINI KEY FACTS Updated OCTOBER 2019
The majority of the UK who express a preference, now want a referendum on the outcome of negotitions.  Such a referendum would currently deliver REMAIN. Since August 2016, the rate of drop in support for Leave from leave voters has been five times the rate of drop in support for remain from remain voters 5.9 million of those who failed to vote in 2016 now say they want to remain in the EU. 2.7 million and falling, of those who failed to vote in 2016 now say they want to leave the EU
Since the referendum, based on the YouGov polls, the swing from leave to remain, in the electorate about 13% and has stabilised, from 3.8% majority for leave to 10% majority for remain.

The majority for remain amongst the 12.9 million who failed to vote in 2016 but who now express a preference, has been steadily increasing.  About 77% of them now provide an opionion, with almost three quarters preferring to remain. 

All things being equal, even without the non-voters from last time, Remain would win a referendum now as new 18 year-olds vote and older voters no longer vote. The remain majority in the UK is now approximately 2.5 x the leave majority at the referendum.
The polls, and demographic modelling show that none of the three groups: (citizens, residents and electorate) of the UK+Gibrater want to leave the EU. If a second referendum happened now, predicting the trend from all the YouGov polls since the referendum, there would be an 10% lead for remain with a 3.5 million majority. Prior to the referendum 58% of the polls were for remaining in the EU. Since the referendum 87% of the polls are for remaining in the EU. On average, the swing to Labour in each constituency in the 2017 election was 58% greater if the candidate had voted against Article 50

Every day about 2000 new 18 year-olds can vote while 1500 older voters leave the register, so leave loses 400 votes while remain gains 550 votes, i.e. 950 more majority for remain every day.

Only 27% of the UK voted to leave the EU. Assuming the steady state preference for Remain continues, the normal electorate majority for Remain on 31st October will be 10%. The % turnout at the 2016 referendum was smaller than the average turnout at referendums and general elections since 1945.

*note that the polls are adapted to reflect the referendum vote across the whole of the UK+Gibraltar, YouGov only sample from England, Wales and Scotland


The YouGov 109 polls trend

Results are shown as majority (above the line) for Remain, or below the line for Leave.

The two sets of numbers are - blue thin lines YouGov GB (only) raw figures. 

The red lines - the same figures with the following three adjustments:

(a) to include NI+Gib (which were not included in YouGov polling),

(b) re-weighted (to reflect the actual voting numbers in the referendum across the whole electorate,

(c) with don't knows removed.

In both cases the since June 2017, the preference is strongly for Remain.

The regression lines are 4th order polynomial.

Data from YouGov (here)


What is the chance that, say, the last 38 polls are all wrong and actually the country thinks it wise to leave the EU?

 

YouGov in their polling say that " All polls are subject to a wide range of potential sources of error.

On the basis of the historical record of the polls at recent general elections, there is a 9 in 10 chance that the true value of a party’s support lies within 4 points of the estimates provided by this poll, and a 2 in 3 chance that they lie within 2 points".

Using these very rough 'party support' measures, all the last 38 polls show a majority of 4% or more for Remain. The chance that one of them is in error by over 4% is no more than 1/10th or 0.1. The chance that they are all over-reading sufficently to be actually wrong, assuming they are independent is very small indeed, of the order of 0.138

1 chance in 10,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

i.e. so incredibly unlikely - effectively impossible.

The electorate definitely does not think it wise to leave the EU.


 

POLARISATION OF THE COUNTRY


 A measure of the degree of sureness. 

Polarisation is on the increase, and at the moment

calculated from the did-vote don't know figures (from the poll) plus the did-not-vote don't know figures (estimated from the poll data), normalised.  Trend line is quadratic.

 

What do those who chose not to vote last time, now want?

 

 Note the commentary and methodology used both below and in the supporting webpage here.  (The regression lines are 2nd order polynomial).  Note the widening gap.

 

PERCENTAGE OF THE ELECTORATE WHO DID NOT VOTE AT THE REFERENDUM, NOW EXPRESSING A PREFERENCE IN THE YOUGOV POLLS

Blue dots and line are preference for Leave, Red dots and line are preference for Remain

Of those previous non-voters who are now expressing an opinion, the preference for remain is now nearly 2.5:1

The diverging lines are 2nd order polynomial regressions on the two data sets. 

Note that 26% (the current gap on the right) of 12.9 million (who did not vote) is 3.3 million, i.e. more than twice the majority (1.3 million) for LEAVE at the referendum

It means that, all other things being equal (which they are not!) if fewer than half of them voted in a second referendum, the result would be reversed.

Data from YouGov (here)

 

 

Leave voters have changed their minds, Remain voters are steady

 

 

11% of Remain voters have accepted the outcome of the referendum, and that has been fairly constant, slightly reducing over the years,

so that means 89% of Remain voters continue to express their preference for remaining in the EU (Red line). 

Initially Leave voters were more sure of their decision than Remain voters,

Leave voter support for Brexit has steadily decreased, and, up to September 2018, was decreasing at the rate of about 1.5% every 2 months.(Blue line)

So about 1 in 7 leave voters no longer think it right to leave the EU

(The lines are quadratic regressions.  As the data increases higher order regressions give unrealistic high perturbations at the end of lines.  See graph below.)

Raw data from YouGov GB only (here)


 

 

On that basis, what would be the result of a second referendum tomorrow?

 

Up to the 9th October 2019 poll (averaging the growth since July 2016)

REMAIN wins with more than 3.8 million (10%) majority

turnout greater than 80%

 

There are two elements...

1. The people who voted last time - how have they changed their minds?

Of the original voters in the referendum, those still expressing a preference have now diverged.

If only those who voted last time, voted this time, the result would be reversed, however the data is fitted.

(line: 4th order polynomial fit)

 

Add 2. Those who did not vote last time who now have a preference. 

They should be added to those who voted last time in the graph above.

Of the 12.9 million who did not vote at the referendum who are now expressing a preference, a majority of more than 28% want to Remain.

So in a referendum tomorrow, assuming those who express a preference, vote, the result would be a large majority (21.9 million:18.4 million) for Remain.

Data from YouGov (here), the regression lines in both of the above are all fourth order polynomials from July 2016


Voting intention and Brexit preference of the main political parties

% of the voting preference

The 24th April 2018 YouGov Poll showing voting preference and Brexit preference. Note 71% of Labour voters want to stay in the EU


List of polls analysed with links to the poll details

 

Referendum day  ►

 Day 6

note 1

29th June

 Day 7

note 8

30th June

 Day 9

note 2

2nd July

 Day 10

note 7

3rd July

 Day 13

note 3

6th July

 Day 15

note 4

8th July

 Day 30

note 5

23rd July

 Day 40

note 6

2nd Aug

 Day 46

note 9

8th August

 Day 60

note 10

23rd Aug

 Day 68

note 11

31st Aug

 Day 82

note 12

13th Sept

 Day 112

note 13

11th Oct

 Day 121

note 14

26th Oct

 Day 144

note 15

14th Nov

 Day 158

note 16

28th Nov

 Day 164

note 17

4th Dec

 Day 178

note 22

18th Dec

 Day 194

note 18

3rd Jan

 Day 200

note 19

9th Jan

 

Vote

Newsnight/

MORI poll

BMG poll

ITV/

YouGov poll of Wales

IPsos MORI poll

Independent/

ORB poll on 2nd referendum

BBC/ComRes poll to

stay in single market

YouGov/

Eurotrac poll*

Times/

YouGov poll*

Times/

YouGov poll*

Times/

YouGov poll*

Times/

YouGov poll*

Times/

YouGov poll*

Times/

YouGov poll*

BMG poll

Times/

YouGov poll*

Times/

YouGov poll*

Times/

YouGov

poll

CNN/

Comres poll

Times/

YouGov poll*

Times/

YouGov poll*

 
3.8% MAJORITY 0.27% MAJORITY 10.58% MAJORITY  6% MAJORITY  14.6% MAJORITY 9.2% MAJORITY 3.5% MAJORITY 0.61% MAJORITY 3.12% MAJORITY 0.72% MAJORITY 1.27% MAJORITY 0.60% MAJORITY 2.44% MAJORITY 1.33% MAJORITY 2.06% MAJORITY 0.97% MAJORITY 2.64% MAJORITY 0.5% MAJORITY 3.3% MAJORITY 1.7% MAJORITY 1.0% MAJORITY  

for

LEAVE

 for REMAIN  for REMAIN  for REMAIN  for REMAIN   for REMAIN  for REMAIN  for REMAIN  for LEAVE  for REMAIN  for REMAIN  for REMAIN  for LEAVE  for REMAIN  for REMAIN  for REMAIN  for REMAIN  for LEAVE  for REMAIN  for LEAVE  for LEAVE  

 

 Day 208

note 20

17th Jan

 ►

 Day 222

note 20

31st Jan

 Day 234

note 20

12th Feb

 Day 243

note 21

20th Feb

 Day 243

note 20

21st Feb

 Day 250

note 20

28th Feb

 Day 234

note 23

7th March

 Day 264

note 20

14th Mar

 Day 270

note 20

20th Mar

 Day 276

note 20

26th March

 Day 286

note 21

5th Apr

 Day 293 onwards

12th Apr

Times/

YouGov

poll

Times/

YouGov poll*

Times/

YouGov poll*

 

IPsos MORI poll

Times/

YouGov poll*

Times/

YouGov poll*

l

Times/

BMG poll

 

Times/

YouGov poll*

Times/

YouGov poll*

Times/

YouGov poll*

*

IPsos MORI poll

Times/

YouGov polls*

1.1% MAJORITY 2.4% MAJORITY 2.9% MAJORITY  4.9% MAJORITY  3.0% MAJORITY  1.2% MAJORITY 1.1% MAJORITY 0.3% MAJORITY 2.2% MAJORITY 0.3% MAJORITY  2.6% MAJORITY note 20
 for LEAVE  for LEAVE  for LEAVE  for REMAIN  for REMAIN  for REMAIN  for LEAVE   for REMAIN  for REMAIN  for REMAIN  for LEAVE and from here

 


 

Commentaries, notes and dashboard

 Commentary on latest polls

 Notes on methodology/statistics

 Dashboard to model a future vote

 Adrian Low profile

 Contact information

Author's BREXIT publications

Brexit was not the will of the British People, it never has been. London School of Economics(1)
In some respects the Brexit referendum was a violation of human rights, London School of Economics(2)
An expert has pointed out the problem with Brexit that no one talks about, Independent
Brexit - not the will of the people, nor is it likely to become so, Esharp
We want to Remain, say 11 out of 13 polls since the Brexit vote, New European:
Brexit is not the will of most people in the UK, Reasons2Remain
New study gave no option to reject Brexit, it's not correct that most Britains want a hard Brexit, Reasons2Remain

 

 


AUTHOR : Professor Adrian Low

a.a.low@staffs.ac.uk  I am happy to talk to groups about this data if you contact me and pay expenses!

My own personal commentary on the referendum itself is here and my case against Brexit from a Christian perspective is argued here and on video here