BREXIT was not, and still is not the will of the electorate, the citizens or the residents of the UK

IT IS NOT THE "WILL OF THE PEOPLE"

Staffordshire University Emeritus Professor, Adrian Low, analyses all the post-BREXIT referendum polls below (LAST UPDATED 16th February 2018)


Whilst the UK population seems to think the government will continue with Brexit come what may,

when asked "With hindsight do you think it was right to vote to leave the EU" , the answer is now, permanently NO.


 

Summary of 59 polls asking GB/UK citizens for preference from all polling sources since the referendum

Data sources and websites are listed below, 51 of the sources are adapted from YouGov (see here)

Photo of Adrian Low

  • The last 22 polls, from May 2017 onwards show a growing Remain preference,

  • Prior to the referendum 58% of the polls were for Remain, 35% for Leave and 7% for a tie. 

  • Since the referendum 42 out of 59 polls, i.e. 71% of them have been for Remain and 29% (none since August 2017) for Leave

  • One  key factor is provided by those who did not vote (including new 18 year olds now eligible to vote).  At least 19% more of them would now vote Remain rather than vote Leave. (see third graph below).  The Latest Jan 2018 figures have the gap at 23%.

  • A large group of those who supported Remain simply did not vote.

  • An increasing number of Leave voters are now preferring to remain, whilst remain voters who initially accepted the referendum result are returning to a Remain preference.

  • Turnout was 72% at the referendum which is about the average turnout in referendums and general elections since the war.  A second referendum would be likely to have an 83% turnout, based on preferences now expressed in the YouGov polls.

     


 
The YouGov 51 polls trend

Results are shown as majority (above the line) for Remain, or below the line for Leave.

The two sets of numbers are - blue thin lines YouGov GB raw figures. 

The red lines - the same figures with the following three adjustments:

(a) applied to UK+Gib, (b) re-weighted (to reflect the actual voting in the referendum across the UK), (c) with don't knows removed.

In both cases the trend is towards Remain, and that trend has been steadily growing.

The regression lines are third order polynomial.

Data from YouGov (here)

 


What do those who chose not to vote last time, now want?

 

 Note the commentary and methodology used both below and in the supporting webpage here.  (The regression lines are 2nd order polynomial).  Note the widening gap.

 

PERCENTAGE OF NON-VOTERS, AT THE REFERENDUM, NOW EXPRESSING A PREFERENCE IN THE YOUGOV POLLS

Blue dots and line are preference for Leave, Red dots and line are preference for Remain

The near-parallel lines are 2nd order polynomial regressions on the two data sets. 

Note that 18% (the current gap on the right) of 12.9 million (who did not vote) is 2.3 million, i.e. greater than the majority (1.3 million) for LEAVE at the referendum

Data from YouGov (here)


 

Leave voters are increasingly changing their minds, Remain voters are steady

 

 

Initially 10% plus of Remain voters accepted the outcome, until February 2017

since when those Remain voters have begun to renew their preference for remaining in the EU (Red line)

Initially Leave voters were more sure of their decision than Remain voters, but their support for Brexit has steadily decreased

with a particularly strong drop at the moment (Blue line)

(The lines are 5th order polynomial.) Data from YouGov (here)


 

 

On that basis, what would be the result of a second referendum tomorrow?

There are two elements...

1. The people who voted last time - how have they changed their minds?

Of the original voters in the referendum, those still expressing a preference are now almost equal at about 15.5 million.

Support for Leave has been dropping constantly, support for Remain has been on the rise.

 

Add 2. Those who did not vote last time who now have a preference. 

They should be added to those who voted last time in the graph above.

 

Of the 12.9 million who did not vote at the referendum who are now expressing a preference, a majority of about 20% want to Remain.

So in a referendum tomorrow, assuming those who express a preference, vote, the result would be a large majority (about 10%) for Remain.

The trajectory of each of these shows the Leave preference decreasing.

Data from YouGov (here), the regression lines are all sixth order polynomials

 

February 12th 2018 poll (right most top red and blue dots on above graph)

21.4 million: REMAIN

18.6 million: LEAVE

a majority of 7% for Remain, turnout 83%.


 

What if we project to Brexit day?

The green line is a best quadratic fit and the black line the best linear fit.

By Brexit day, if figures continue as they have been, the UK electors (with the right to vote) will have a majority of between 10% and 20% for remaining in the EU.

All data from YouGov.

 


Voting intention and Brexit preference of the main political parties

% of the voting preference

The 10th October 2017 YouGov Poll showing voting preference and Brexit preference. Note 69% of Labour voters want to stay in the EU

Voters for other parties make very little difference (very approximately the Green/SNP preference to stay in the EU is balanced by the UKIP preference to leave)


List of polls analysed with links to the poll details

 

Referendum day  ►

 Day 6

note 1

29th June

 Day 7

note 8

30th June

 Day 9

note 2

2nd July

 Day 10

note 7

3rd July

 Day 13

note 3

6th July

 Day 15

note 4

8th July

 Day 30

note 5

23rd July

 Day 40

note 6

2nd Aug

 Day 46

note 9

8th August

 Day 60

note 10

23rd Aug

 Day 68

note 11

31st Aug

 Day 82

note 12

13th Sept

 Day 112

note 13

11th Oct

 Day 121

note 14

26th Oct

 Day 144

note 15

14th Nov

 Day 158

note 16

28th Nov

 Day 164

note 17

4th Dec

 Day 178

note 22

18th Dec

 Day 194

note 18

3rd Jan

 Day 200

note 19

9th Jan

 

Vote

Newsnight/

MORI poll

BMG poll

ITV/

YouGov poll of Wales

IPsos MORI poll

Independent/

ORB poll on 2nd referendum

BBC/ComRes poll to

stay in single market

YouGov/

Eurotrac poll*

Times/

YouGov poll*

Times/

YouGov poll*

Times/

YouGov poll*

Times/

YouGov poll*

Times/

YouGov poll*

Times/

YouGov poll*

BMG poll

Times/

YouGov poll*

Times/

YouGov poll*

Times/

YouGov

poll

CNN/

Comres poll

Times/

YouGov poll*

Times/

YouGov poll*

 
3.8% MAJORITY 0.27% MAJORITY 10.58% MAJORITY  6% MAJORITY  14.6% MAJORITY 9.2% MAJORITY 3.5% MAJORITY 0.61% MAJORITY 3.12% MAJORITY 0.72% MAJORITY 1.27% MAJORITY 0.60% MAJORITY 2.44% MAJORITY 1.33% MAJORITY 2.06% MAJORITY 0.97% MAJORITY 2.64% MAJORITY 0.5% MAJORITY 3.3% MAJORITY 1.7% MAJORITY 1.0% MAJORITY  

for

LEAVE

 for REMAIN  for REMAIN  for REMAIN  for REMAIN   for REMAIN  for REMAIN  for REMAIN  for LEAVE  for REMAIN  for REMAIN  for REMAIN  for LEAVE  for REMAIN  for REMAIN  for REMAIN  for REMAIN  for LEAVE  for REMAIN  for LEAVE  for LEAVE  

 

 Day 208

note 20

17th Jan

 ►

 Day 222

note 20

31st Jan

 Day 234

note 20

12th Feb

 Day 243

note 21

20th Feb

 Day 243

note 20

21st Feb

 Day 250

note 20

28th Feb

 Day 234

note 23

7th March

 Day 264

note 20

14th Mar

 Day 270

note 20

20th Mar

 Day 276

note 20

26th March

 Day 286

note 21

5th Apr

 Day 293 onwards

12th Apr

Times/

YouGov

poll

Times/

YouGov poll*

Times/

YouGov poll*

 

IPsos MORI poll

Times/

YouGov poll*

Times/

YouGov poll*

l

Times/

BMG poll

 

Times/

YouGov poll*

Times/

YouGov poll*

Times/

YouGov poll*

*

IPsos MORI poll

Times/

YouGov polls*

1.1% MAJORITY 2.4% MAJORITY 2.9% MAJORITY  4.9% MAJORITY  3.0% MAJORITY  1.2% MAJORITY 1.1% MAJORITY 0.3% MAJORITY 2.2% MAJORITY 0.3% MAJORITY  2.6% MAJORITY note 20
 for LEAVE  for LEAVE  for LEAVE  for REMAIN  for REMAIN  for REMAIN  for LEAVE   for REMAIN  for REMAIN  for REMAIN  for LEAVE and from here

 


 

Commentaries, notes and dashboard

 1st January 2018 commentary on latest polls

 Notes on methodology/statistics

 Dashboard to model a future vote

 Adrian Low profile

 Contact information

Author's BREXIT publications

Brexit was not the will of the British People, it never has been. London School of Economics(1)
In some respects the Brexit referendum was a violation of human rights, London School of Economics(2)
An expert has pointed out the problem with Brexit that no one talks about, Independent
Brexit - not the will of the people, nor is it likely to become so, Esharp
 In hindsight, was Brexit the right decision? The answer is no, the electorate doesn't want Brexit, Reasons2Remain
We want to Remain, say 11 out of 13 polls since the Brexit vote, New European:
Brexit is not the will of most people in the UK, Reasons2Remain
New study gave no option to reject Brexit, it's not correct that most Britains want a hard Brexit, Reasons2Remain

 

 


AUTHOR : Professor Adrian Low

a.a.low@staffs.ac.uk

My own personal commentary on the referendum itself is here and my case against Brexit from a Christian perspective is argued here