(1) The Newsnight Ipsos-MORI poll (conducted Wednesday and Thursday after referendum) data is here (Q3 page 7)

If a second referendum had been conducted day 6 after the Brexit vote, REMAIN would have won by nearly 100,000.

1 in every 18 Leave voters said they would 'definitely' or 'probably' change their vote

Also 19% of those who did not vote saw it as the right decision to leave and 35% saw it as the wrong decision to leave.  Had they voted this would have added a further 2.4 million to the majority to REMAIN.

%

Leave Voters

Remain Voters

Definitely or probably vote the same way

90.47%

94.6%

Definitely or probably change my vote

5.51%

1.94%

Don't know

2.75%

2.38%

Would not vote

1.27%

1.30%

That means, if the don't knows vote half and half, leave and remain, then the following is true:

LEAVE = 17,410,742 Giving result                   REMAIN = 16,141,241 Giving result
less 5.51% who change vote from leave = 959,066 16,451,676   less 1.94% who change vote from remain = 313,761 15,827,480
plus 1.94% who change vote from remain = 313,761 16,765,436   plus 5,51% who change vote from leave = 959,066 16,786,547
less half of the 2.75% of leavers who don't know = 239,767 16,525,670   less half of the 2.38% of remainers who don't know = 206,823 16,579,724
plus half of the 2.38% of remainers who don't know = 206,823 16,732,493   plus half of the 2.75% of leavers who don't know = 239,767 16,819,490

MAJORITY FOR REMAIN 86,997 votes (0.27%).

This majority size is also true if the don't knows don't vote at all

(2) ITV/Cardiff University/YouGov poll (conducted Thursday-Monday after referendum) data is here

If a second referendum had been conducted  9 days after the Brexit vote, REMAIN would have won by 6% (2.01 million)

The poll was in Wales, BUT the Brexit vote is a good indicator of the mood of the UK as a whole.

52% of those who did not vote at the referendum, said they would now vote, with a 10% majority for REMAIN.

Whilst the percentage voting to REMAIN stayed much the same, more than 1 in 7 voting LEAVE last time would not vote again, or don't know or, change their mind. 

Basically 1 in 7 were no longer with the leave camp.

 

 

At the referendum

 

Now

If no-vote taken out and don't-knows shared equally or taken out, the result would be

LEAVE

53%

 

41%

47%

REMAIN

47%

 

46%

53%

 

 

Would not vote now

8%

 

 

 

Don't know

5%

 

MAJORITY FOR REMAIN 2,013,119 (6%)

(3) The Independent/ORB poll (conducted 5th and 6th July) data is here

 

  Voted Leave at the referendum
There should be a second referendum on any negotiated deal 12%
There should not be a second referendum 78%
Don't know 10%

 

This was more difficult to interpret as second voting intentions, because that question was not directly asked, but it is reasonable to assume that 22%

of the leavers were not fixed with their view and if a second vote did not offer a good deal, probably 12% (plus some from the don't knows) would vote the other way.

 

LEAVE = 17,410,742  Giving result                   REMAIN = 16,141,241  Giving result
less 12% who want a second referendum = 2,176,342  15,234,399   plus 12% who want a second referendum = 2,176,342  18,317,584

MAJORITY FOR REMAIN 3,083,185  (9.2%)

(4) The BBC News/ComRes poll (conducted 7th to 10th July) data is here

 

This asked 'Following the result of the EU referendum, the UK will now have to negotiate a new deal on the EU single market. The EU Single Market allows countries in the EU to trade with each other [note the wording which does not suggest trading externally to the EU] without additional charges or regulation standards. As part of this access, they must agree to rules allowing free movement of people including the right of EU citizens to be able to live and work anywhere in the EU'. 

7% of the leavers would 'Stay in the single market with the current rules on free movement.'  That is the status quo and, on its own would give a majority of 3.5% for REMAIN

(A further 54% of leave voters would stay in the single market with some changes to the rules on free movement.)

 

  Voted Remain at the referendum Voted Leave at the referendum
Stay in the single market with the current rules on free movement. 29% 7%
Stay in the single market with some limits on free movement. 53% 54%
Leave the EU single market and end rules on free movement. 15% 35%

 

If 7% of the leavers now wish to stay in the single market with status quo on the rules on free movement, then that 7% would move to remain.  Indeed the 54% of leavers who want to stay in the single market with some limits on movement, might also now vote to remain.

 

LEAVE = 17,410,742  Giving result                   REMAIN = 16,141,241  Giving result
less 7% who would stay in the EU single market with current rules on free movement = 1,218,752  16,191,990   plus 7% of leavers who now would stay in the EU single market with current rules on free movement = 1,218,752  17,359,993

MAJORITY FOR REMAIN 1,168,003  (3.48%)

(5) The YouGov/Eurotrack poll (conducted 21st to 22nd July) data is here (page 1)

If there was a referendum on British membership of the European Union, how would you vote now

% June 23 Remain Voters June 23 Leave Voters June 23 Don't know or Did not vote then
I would vote to remain 93% 4% 27%
I would vote to leave 2% 90% 23%
Would not vote 1% 2% 31%
Don't know 3% 4% 18%

 

The calculation is similar to that in (1) above.  The key to the change is the 10% of leave voters who either change their minds or would not vote, or are not sure,

and of new voters a big majority (300,000 or 8%) in favour of Remain.  Note that the outcome does not accord with YouGov's own summary but I do not have the raw figures, only percentages to check who is right, either way it is a very close outcome. 

Note that 72.2% of the electorate voted, which means that 27.8% did not vote, or approximately 12.9 million.  I have used that figure in the DN/DV column to estimate the actual numbers below.

 

  Voted Remain Voted Leave DN/DV Total Majority  
Remain 15,011,354 696,430 3,488,105 19,195,889 232,047 (0.61%)
Leave 322,825 15,669,668 2,971,349 18,963,841    
Would not vote 161,412 348,215 4,004,861 4,514,489    
Dont't know 484,237 696,430 2,325,403 3,506,070    

 

MAJORITY FOR REMAIN 232,047  (0.61%)

(6) YouGov/Times poll (conducted 1st to 2nd August) data is here (page 6)

 

This asked "In highsight [sic], do you think Britain was right or wrong to vote to leave the European Union?"

 

  Voted Remain at the referendum Voted Leave at the referendum
Right to leave 4% 94%
Wrong to leave. 89% 2%
Don't know. 7% 4%

 

This poll is considerably out of kilter with all the others.  It suggests that the leavers are more sure about leaving now than in previous polls.

There could have been a new trend, here, but the figures read almost exactly the opposite to the previous seven polls  and that is unlikely. 

The error on polls is classically regarded as 3% and one in 20 polls would be outside those confidence limits. 

Implementing a 3% change on the poll would bring it in line with all the others.

YouGov sampling  includes 18% that did not vote in the referendum, however this does not appear in this specific table so any change as a result of new voters is not shown. 

Presumably the poll did not ask anyone who had not voted whether they thought it right or wrong to leave the EU.

To include that as part of the result would require a similar estimate to that in poll 5 above. 

It did not include Northern Ireland, which voted to remain and the intentions there may be more strongly held.

 

Furthermore, the subsequent questions asked if they thought Britain would be better off, or not, after leaving the EU.  The results were:

 

  BETTER WORSE
Better off economically 29% 38%
More influence in the world 20% 34%
Good effect on British jobs 24% 35%
Good effect on the NHS 30% 25%
Less immigration 47% 37%
Good for pensions 8% 30%
AVERAGE EXPECTATION OF IMPROVEMENT 26%  

 

Given the very low expectation of improvement, the answer to the earlier question is extraordinary. 

In all but two of those questions the expectation that Britain would be worse off was half as much again.

It is likely that had the questions about 'better off' been asked first  in the survey, the view on leaving the EU would be different.

Nevertheless the analysis is

 

  Voted Remain at the referendum Voted Leave at the referendum Estimate of Didn't vote last time (from (9)) Total Majority  
Right to leave 645,650 16,366,097 3,875,672 20,887,419 1,264,315 (3.12%)
Wrong to leave. 14,365,704 348,215 4,909,185 19,623,104    
Don't know. 1,129,887 696,430 4,134,050      

 

MAJORITY FOR LEAVE 1,264,315  (3.12%)

(7) Ipsos/MORI poll (conducted 24th June to 8th July published 4th August) data is here (page 39)

 

Do you think it was the right decision or wrong decision for Britain to leave the European Union?

 

  Great Britain poll
Right to leave 38%
Wrong to leave. 51%
Don't know. 11%

 

If this poll is applied to the total numbers voting in the referendum (ignoring the don't knows) the results would be

 

LEAVE STAY TOTAL REFERENDUM VOTES Those expressing an opinion
38% 51% 33,551,983 89%
       
38/89xTotal votes 14,325,566 51/89xTotal votes 19,226,417

MAJORITY FOR STAY

4,900,851

Percentage

14.61%

 

This is very significant

MAJORITY FOR REMAIN  4,900,851  (14.61%)

(8) BMG research poll (conducted 29th-30th June published 15th July) data is here (pages 4 and 5)

 

  Past EU referendum vote Future EU referendum vote
LEAVE 356 372
REMAIN. 325 453
Don't know. 285 192

 

If this poll is applied to the total numbers voting in the referendum the results would be

 

  PAST VOTE NEW VOTE  
LEAVE 17,410,742 18,193,247  
REMAIN 16,141,241 22,498,407  
       
  MAJORITY= 4,305,159 10.58%

 

This is very significant

Also the Didn't vote group indicated they found the result positive (23%) and negative (27%)

MAJORITY FOR REMAIN  4,305,159  (10.58%)

(9) YouGov/Times poll (conducted 8th to 9th August) data is here (page 6)

 

This asked "In hindsight, do you think Britain was right or wrong to vote to leave the European Union?"

Note that the poll does not include Northern Ireland where the vote was to remain, so the figures will be biased in favour of leave.*

 

 

  Voted Remain at the referendum Voted Leave at the referendum Did not vote
Right to leave 4% 89% 30%
Wrong to leave. 90% 5% 38%
Don't know. 7% 7% 32%

 

This poll counters poll 7 from YouGov. 

YouGov have included the Did not vote numbers which is helpful.  12.9 million did not vote at the referendum, so that gives figures for the final column

 

*Also, out of 1692 respondents to the poll, 27 (1.6%) did not indicate what they voted nor that they did not vote.  (see discussion in initial paragraphs) Further analysis of YouGov polls below discounts these no responses to this question on the basis that it is likely that some (or all) simply may not have had the right to vote in the referendum, so the question was not applicable to them, or are spurious "Don't know". 

 

The analysis is

 

  Voted Remain at the referendum Voted Leave at the referendum Did not vote as a proportion of the 12.9 million Total Majority  
Right to leave 645,650 15,495,560 3,875,672 20,016,882    
Wrong to leave. 14,527,117 870,537 4,909,185 20,306,839 289,957 (0.72%)
Don't know. 1,129,887 1,218,752 4,134,050      

 

 MAJORITY FOR REMAIN 289,957  (0.72%)

(10) YouGov/Times poll (conducted 22nd to 23rd August) data is here (page 5)

 

This asked "In hindsight, do you think Britain was right or wrong to vote to leave the European Union?"

Note that the poll does not include Northern Ireland where the vote was to remain, so the figures will be biased in favour of leave.*

 

  Voted Remain at the referendum Voted Leave at the referendum Did not vote
Right to leave 4% 92% 23%
Wrong to leave. 89% 2% 42%
Don't know. 7% 5% 35%

 

This poll counters poll 7 from YouGov. 

12.9 million did not vote at the referendum, so that gives figures for the final column

The analysis is

 

  Voted Remain at the referendum Voted Leave at the referendum Did not vote as a proportion of the 12.9 million Total Majority  
Right to leave 645,650 16,017,883 2,971,349 19,634,881    
Wrong to leave. 14,365,704 348,215 5,425,941 20,139,861 504,979 (1.27%)
Don't know. 1,129,887 870,537 4,521,618      

 MAJORITY FOR REMAIN 504,979  (1.27%)

Note this poll also gives a good indication of the YouGov polling numbers who do not answer that they either voted remain, leave or did-not-vote at the referendum.  39 out of 1660 (2.35%) did not answer.

(11) YouGov/Times poll (conducted 30th to 31st August) data is here (page 5)

 

This asked "In hindsight, do you think Britain was right or wrong to vote to leave the European Union?"

Note that the poll does not include Northern Ireland where the vote was to remain, so the figures will be biased in favour of leave.

 

  Voted Remain at the referendum Voted Leave at the referendum Did not vote
Right to leave 6% 91% 30%
Wrong to leave. 87% 4% 48%
Don't know. 7% 5% 22%

 

12.96 million did not vote at the referendum, so that gives figures for the final column

The analysis is

 

 

16,141,241

Voted Remain at the referendum

17,410,742

Voted Leave at the referendum

 12,958,258 minus estimate of spoilt balots = 12,913,178

Did not vote at the referendum

Total

Majority

 
Right to leave 948,474 15,843,775 3,873,953 20,686,203    
Wrong to leave. 14,042,880 696,430 6,198,325 20,937,635 251,432 (0.60%)
Don't know. 1,129,887 870,537 2,840,899      

 MAJORITY FOR REMAIN 251,432  (0.60%)

(12) YouGov/Times poll (conducted 13th to 14th September) data is here (page 5)

 

This asked "In hindsight, do you think Britain was right or wrong to vote to leave the European Union?"

Note that the poll does not include Northern Ireland where the vote was to remain, so the figures will be biased in favour of leave.

This polled in favour of leave and the key component was the significant change in those who did not vote in the referendum.  There has been a constant ratio of about 3:2 in favour of remaining, in the did not vote group.  That is significantly different here, but the balance is redressed again in the following poll in October which, once again, shows the 'did not vote' group as being more than 3:2 in favour of remaining.  The October poll is in keeping with previous polls and, on that basis, this is more likely to be anomalous than the October poll.

 

  Voted Remain at the referendum Voted Leave at the referendum Did not vote
Right to leave 4% 90% 35%
Wrong to leave. 89% 4% 37%
Don't know. 8% 6% 27%

 

12.96 million did not vote at the referendum, so that gives figures for the final column

The analysis is

 

 

16,141,241

Voted Remain at the referendum

17,410,742

Voted Leave at the referendum

 12,958,258 minus estimate of spoilt balots = 12,913,178

Did not vote at the referendum

Total

Majority

 
Right to leave 645,650 15,699,688 4,519,612 20,843,530 994,820 (2.44%)
Wrong to leave. 14,365,704 696,430 4,777,876 19,840,010    
Don't know. 1,291,299 1,044,645 3,486,588      

 MAJORITY FOR LEAVE 994,820  (2.44%)

(13) YouGov/Times poll (conducted 11th to 12th October) data is here (page 5)

 

This asked "In hindsight, do you think Britain was right or wrong to vote to leave the European Union?"

Note that the poll does not include Northern Ireland where the vote was to remain, so the figures will be biased in favour of leave.

This returns the 'Did not vote' numbers to approximately what has been the case since the referendum, suggesting that the September poll was anomalous.

 

  Voted Remain at the referendum Voted Leave at the referendum Did not vote
Right to leave 6% 89% 26%
Wrong to leave. 89% 4% 41%
Don't know. 6% 6% 33%

 

12.96 million did not vote at the referendum, so that gives figures for the final column

The analysis is

 

 

16,141,241

Voted Remain at the referendum

17,410,742

Voted Leave at the referendum

 12,958,258 minus estimate of spoilt balots = 12,913,178

Did not vote at the referendum

Total

Majority

 
Right to leave 968,474 15,495,560 3,357,426 19,821,461    
Wrong to leave. 14,365,704 696,430 5,294,403 20,356,537 535,076 (1.33%)
Don't know. 968,474 1,044,645 4,261,349      

MAJORITY FOR REMAIN 535,076  (1.33%)

(14) BMG poll (conducted 19th to 24th October published 25th October) data is here (page 20/43)

 

This asked "Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union, or leave the European Union?"

 

(using the raw figures which are available, to give marginally more accuracy than the published percentage table)

 

  Voted Remain at the referendum Voted Leave at the referendum Did not vote
Right to leave 3.57% 95.14% 27.08%
Wrong to leave. 93.65% 2.70% 45.84%
Don't know/Prefer not say. 2.78% 2.16% 27.08%

 

12.96 million did not vote at the referendum, so that gives figures for the final column

The analysis is

 

 

16,141,241

Voted Remain at the referendum

17,410,742

Voted Leave at the referendum

 12,958,258 minus estimate of spoilt balots = 12,913,178

Did not vote at the referendum

Total

Majority

 
Right to leave 576,473 16,565,256 3,496,680 20,638,409    
Wrong to leave. 15,116,400 469,714 5,919,818 21,505,932 867,523 (2.06%)
Don't know. 448,368 375,771 3,496,680      

MAJORITY FOR REMAIN 867,523  (2.06%)

(15) YouGov poll (conducted 14th to 15th November) data is here (page 5)

 

This asked "In hindsight, do you think Britain was right or wrong to vote to leave the European Union?"

 

Unfortunately YouGov is no longer asking the non-reported group if they did not vote or could not vote.  YouGov does not include Northern Ireland.

 

  Voted Remain at the referendum Voted Leave at the referendum Did not vote
Right to leave 5% 92% 26%
Wrong to leave. 87% 4% 39%
Don't know/Prefer not say. 8% 4% 40%

 

Note the did-not-vote column is based on the sample sizes provided by YouGov.  The figures below are based on the numbers actually voting or not at the referendum

12.96 million did not vote at the referendum, so that gives figures for the final column (i.e. includes Northern Ireland)

The analysis is

 

 

16,141,241

Voted Remain at the referendum

17,410,742

Voted Leave at the referendum

 12,958,258 minus estimate of spoilt balots = 12,913,178

Did not vote at the referendum

Total

Majority

 
Right to leave 807,062 16,017,883 3,414,679 20,239,623 412,773 (1.03%)
Wrong to leave. 14,042,880 696,430 5,087,541 19,826,851    
Don't know. 1,291,299 696,430 5,128,496      

MAJORITY FOR LEAVE 412,773  (1.03%)

(16) youGov poll (conducted 28th to 29th November) data is here (page 6)

 

This asked "In hindsight, do you think Britain was right or wrong to vote to leave the European Union?"

 

Unfortunately YouGov is no longer asking the non-reported group if they did not vote or could not vote.  YouGov does not include Northern Ireland.

 

  Voted Remain at the referendum Voted Leave at the referendum Did not vote
Right to leave 5% 86% 30%
Wrong to leave. 90% 6% 39%
Don't know/Prefer not say. 6% 8% 29%

 

Note the did-not-vote column is based on the sample sizes provided by YouGov.  The figures below are based on the numbers actually voting or not at the referendum

12.96 million did not vote at the referendum, so that gives figures for the final column (i.e. includes Northern Ireland)

The analysis is

 

 

16,141,241

Voted Remain at the referendum

17,410,742

Voted Leave at the referendum

 12,958,258 minus estimate of spoilt balots = 12,913,178

Did not vote at the referendum

Total

Majority

 
Right to leave 807,062 14,973,238 3,820,185 19,600,485    
Wrong to leave. 14,527,117 1,044,645 5,069,193 20,640,955 1,040,470 (2.59%)
Don't know. 968,474 1,392,859 3,748,618      

MAJORITY FOR REMAIN 1,040,470  (2.59%)

(17) YouGov poll (conducted 4th to 5th December) data is here (page 5)

 

This asked "In hindsight, do you think Britain was right or wrong to vote to leave the European Union?"

 

Unfortunately YouGov is no longer asking the non-reported group if they did not vote or could not vote.  YouGov does not include Northern Ireland.

 

  Voted Remain at the referendum Voted Leave at the referendum Did not vote based on the total percentages given by YouGov
Right to leave 5% 89% 22%
Wrong to leave. 88% 4% 32%
Don't know/Prefer not say. 7% 7% 46%

 

Note the did-not-vote column is based on the sample sizes provided by YouGov.  The figures below are based on the numbers actually voting or not at the referendum

12.96 million did not vote at the referendum, so that gives figures for the final column (i.e. includes Northern Ireland)

The analysis is

 

 

16,141,241

Voted Remain at the referendum

17,410,742

Voted Leave at the referendum

 12,958,258 minus estimate of spoilt balots = 12,913,178

Did not vote at the referendum

Total

Majority

 
Right to leave 807,062 15,495,560 2,886,095 19,188,718    
Wrong to leave. 14,204,292 696,430 4,100,364 19,001,086 187,632 (0.5%)
Don't know. 1,129,887 1,218,752 5,926,718      

MAJORITY FOR LEAVE 187,632  (0.5%)

(18) YouGov (conducted 3rd to 4th January) data is here (page 5)

 

This asked "In hindsight, do you think Britain was right or wrong to vote to leave the European Union?"

 

Unfortunately YouGov is no longer asking the non-reported group if they did not vote or could not vote.  YouGov does not include Northern Ireland.

 

  Voted Remain at the referendum Voted Leave at the referendum Did not vote based on the total percentages given by YouGov
Right to leave 7% 90% 27%
Wrong to leave. 88% 5% 35%
Don't know/Prefer not say. 5% 5% 44%

Note the did-not-vote column is based on the sample sizes provided by YouGov.  The figures below are based on the numbers actually voting or not at the referendum

12.96 million did not vote at the referendum, so that gives figures for the final column (i.e. includes Northern Ireland)

The analysis is

 

 

16,141,241

Voted Remain at the referendum

17,410,742

Voted Leave at the referendum

 12,958,258 minus estimate of spoilt balots = 12,913,178

Did not vote at the referendum

Total

Majority

 
Right to leave 1,129,887 15,669,668 3,458,091 20,257,646 680,532 (1.7%)
Wrong to leave. 14,204,292 870,537 4,502,285 19,577,114    
Don't know. 807,062 870,537 5,670,659      

MAJORITY FOR LEAVE 680,532  (1.7%)

(19) YouGov (conducted 9th to 10th January) data is here (page 6)

 

This asked "In hindsight, do you think Britain was right or wrong to vote to leave the European Union?"

 

Unfortunately YouGov is no longer asking the non-reported group if they did not vote or could not vote.  YouGov does not include Northern Ireland.

 

  Voted Remain at the referendum Voted Leave at the referendum Did not vote based on the total percentages given by YouGov
Right to leave 6% 90% 29%
Wrong to leave. 86% 4% 42%
Don't know/Prefer not say. 8% 5% 37%

 

Note the did-not-vote column is based on the sample sizes provided by YouGov.  The figures below are based on the numbers actually voting or not at the referendum

12.96 million did not vote at the referendum, so that gives figures for the final column (i.e. includes Northern Ireland)

The analysis is

 

 

16,141,241

Voted Remain at the referendum

17,410,742

Voted Leave at the referendum

 12,958,258 minus estimate of spoilt balots = 12,913,178

Did not vote at the referendum

Total

Majority

 
Right to leave 968,474 15,669,668 3,730,570 20,368,712 404,422 (1.0%)
Wrong to leave. 13,881,467 696,430 5,386,393 19,964,290    
Don't know. 1,291,299 870,537 4,819,336      

MAJORITY FOR LEAVE 404,422  (1.0%)

(20) YouGov  (conducted 17th to 18th January) data is here (page 3) **

 

This asked "In hindsight, do you think Britain was right or wrong to vote to leave the European Union?"

 

Unfortunately YouGov is no longer asking the non-reported group if they did not vote or could not vote.  YouGov does not include Northern Ireland.

 

  Voted Remain at the referendum Voted Leave at the referendum Did not vote based on the total percentages given by YouGov
Right to leave 6% 90% 29%
Wrong to leave. 86% 4% 42%
Don't know/Prefer not say. 9% 5% 35%

 

Note the did-not-vote column is based on the sample sizes provided by YouGov.  The figures below are based on the numbers actually voting or not at the referendum

12.96 million did not vote at the referendum, so that gives figures for the final column (i.e. includes Northern Ireland)

The analysis is

 

 

16,141,241

Voted Remain at the referendum

17,410,742

Voted Leave at the referendum

 12,958,258 minus estimate of spoilt balots = 12,913,178

Did not vote at the referendum

Total

Majority

 
Right to leave 968,474 15,669,668 3,745,688 20,383,830 433,532 (1.1%)
Wrong to leave. 13,881,467 696,430 5,372,402 19,950,299    
Don't know. 1,452,712 870,537 4,536,079      

MAJORITY FOR LEAVE 433,532  (1.1%)

**Note that the same methodology is used for all subsequent YouGov polls and, if required can be obtained from the author.  The relevant web sites are:

Day 222 31st Jan

Day 234 12th Feb

Day 243 21st Feb

Day 250 28th Feb

Day 264 14th March

Day 270 20th March

Day 276 26th March

(21) Ipsos-Mori poll (conducted 20th February 2017) data is here (page 6)

 

This asked "What did you vote and if there were a second referendum, what would you vote"

Note that the poll does not include Northern Ireland of Gibraltar where the vote was to remain, so the figures will be biased in favour of leave.

The sample did not consider any of those who did not vote at the referendum

 

  Voted Remain at the referendum Voted Leave at the referendum
Definitely the same 82% 73%
Probably the same 10% 16%
Probably change 3% 3%
Definitely change 1% 1%
Would not vote. 1% 3%
Don't know. 3% 4%

 

Combining the Definitely and Probably, and combining the would-not-vote and don't-know gives the following figures. 

12.96 million did not vote at the referendum, so these have been retrieved from the YouGov figures for 21st Feb 2017

The analysis is

 

 

16,141,241

Voted Remain at the referendum

17,410,742

Voted Leave at the referendum

 12,958,258 minus estimate of spoilt balots = 12,913,178

Did not vote at the referendum

from YouGov 21st Feb figures

Total

Majority

 
Right to leave 645,650 15,495,500 3,605,220 19,746,430    
Wrong to leave. 14,849,942 696,430 6,247,186 21,793,557 2,047,128 (4.92%)
Not vote/Don't know. 645,650 1,218,752 3,343,466      

MAJORITY FOR REMAIN 2,047,128  (4.92%)

(22) Comres/CNN (conducted 15th to 18th December) data is here (page 4)

 

This asked "If I were able to vote now I would vote to Leave/Remain in the EU"

 

Unfortunately YouGov is no longer asking the non-reported group if they did not vote or could not vote.  YouGov does not include Northern Ireland.

 

  Voted Remain at the referendum Voted Leave at the referendum Did not vote based on the total percentages given by Comres
Would vote to leave 6% 90% 21%
Would vote to remain. 89% 5% 42%
Don't know/Prefer not say. 5% 5% 38%

 

Note the did-not-vote column is based on the sample sizes provided by ComRes.  The figures below are based on the numbers actually voting or not at the referendum

12.96 million did not vote at the referendum, so that gives figures for the final column (i.e. includes Northern Ireland)

The analysis is

 

 

16,141,241

Voted Remain at the referendum

17,410,742

Voted Leave at the referendum

 12,958,258 minus estimate of spoilt balots = 12,913,178

Did not vote at the referendum

Total

Majority

 
Right to leave 968,474 15,669,668 2,656,818 19,294,960    
Wrong to leave. 14,365,704 870,537 5,390,565 20,626,806 1,331,847 (3.3%)
Don't know. 807,062 870,537 4,865,795      

MAJORITY FOR REMAIN 1,331,847  (3.3%)

(23) BMG (conducted 7th March) data is here

 

This asked 'What would you vote now?'

 

 

  What would you vote now
Would vote to leave 46.2% (692)
Would vote to remain. 45.1% (676)
Would not vote. 6.7% (101)
Prefer not to say. 1.9% (29

 

MAJORITY FOR LEAVE 433,532 (1.1%)

 


Photo of Adrian Low

AUTHOR

Professor Adrian Low, Professor Emeritus , Staffordshire University

a.a.low@staffs.ac.uk

www.staffs.ac.uk/staff/profiles/aal1.jsp

 

My own personal commentary on the referendum itself is here and my case against Brexit from a Christian perspective is argued here