Shorter headlines - updated May 2018
Leave voters keep jumping ship.1  2nd referendum today? Remain wins with double majority had by Leave .5 Quarter of remainers don't want another referendum - they simply don't want Brexit.7 Labour MPs against Article 50 got best swing to Labour12
Leavers jump ship 5 times faster than Remainers2 UK majority for remain now 7% and growing.6  Polls predict 11% majority for Remain by Brexit day 10

Pre referendum polls: 58% for Remain,    

Post referendum polls, 75% for Remain9

Non-voters want a second vote:5.6 million, want to Remain but only 3 million want to Leave 3 All anti-Article 50 Labour MPs won their seats13 Only 27% of the UK voted Leave.  1 Every day 2,050 new 18 year-olds can vote and about the same number of older voters leave the register, a shift in favour of Remain of about 390,000 per year14
DEMOCRACY = THE WILL OF THE PEOPLE - citizens, residents and electorate don't want Brexit.4 Leave majority wiped out by new voters8 28 out of 30 UK polls since General Election say NO to BREXIT.15 Nearly 3 million leave voters have changed their minds 1

 

I am happy to write an article, or provide further details on any of these (for free!).  Please just contact me.  07475768723 or a.a.low@staffs.ac.uk

 

MINI HEADLINES (May 2018)

 

Every hour since August 2016, more than 80 leave voters change their minds whilst less than 20 remain voters change their minds
Since August 2016, the rate of drop in support for Leave from leave voters has been five times the rate of drop in support for remain from remain voters
5.6 million, and growing, of those who failed to vote in 2016 now say they want to remain in the EU.
3 million and falling, of those who failed to vote in 2016 now say they want to leave the EU
The majority for remain amongst the 12.9 million who failed to vote in 2016 but who now express a preference, has been steadily increasing.

It is now more than 29%, more than twice as much as necessary to overturn the referendum result.
Since the referendum, based on the 60 YouGov polls, the swing to remain, in GB adults is 6.6% and growing, substantially overturning the 3.8% majoirty for Brexit.
The polls, and demographic modelling show that none of the three groups: (citizens, residents and electorate) of the UK+Gibrater want to leave the EU.
All things being equal, even without the non-voters from last time, Remain would win a referendum now as new 18 year-olds vote and older voters no longer vote.
Prior to the referendum 58% of the polls were for remaining in the EU. Since the referendum 75% of the polls are for remaining in the EU.
If a second referendum happened now, predicting the trend from all the 60 YouGov polls since the referendum, there would be a 6.6% lead for remain with a 2.6 million majority.
27% of the UK voted to leave the EU. If all adult residents and citizens of the UK were allowed to vote now, there would be a remain majority of approximately 4.7 million, with 34% of the population voting remain
On average, the swing to Labour in each constituency in the 2017 election was 58% greater if the candidate had voted against Article 50
All the Labour candidates who voted against Article 50 and who stood for election in 2016, retained their seats
Every day about 2000 new 18 year-olds can vote while 2000 older voters leave the register, so leave loses 650 votes while remain gains 420 votes, i.e. 1000 more majority for remain every day.

Assuming the steady increase preference for Remain continues linearly, the normal electorate majority for Remain on Brexit day will be 10.9%.
 

 

1. According to YouGov polls since 1st August 2016, 3.26% drop in support for Leave among Leave voters, and 0.66% drop in support for Remain among Remain voters; see no2brexit.com for data.  These are linear regression averages on all the re-weighted data.  2. See 1, 3.26%/0.66%=4.93, if actual people numbers are used: 5.3%  3. See 1, no2brexit.com  4. See 1, no2brexit.com   5. See no2brexit.com, linear regression on the nine YouGov polls starting 26 April 2017 (since general election announcement).   6. Based on 31 YouGov polls since August 2016, see no2brexit.com   7. Citizens would include 700,000 UK citizens in the EU for more than 15 years (likely to vote remain), and 12.9 million non-voters from the referendum who have a majority of over 2 million for remain.   Residents would include a further 3 million EU residents in the UK who were not given a vote who would mostly vote remain.  Electorate includes the 12.9 million with over 2 million for remain.  8. See no2brexit.com/dashboard.  Based on population estimates, turnout and voting rates for 18-24s and 65+s, approximately 390,000 shift in favour of remain per year.  9.  See no2brexit.com for the polls since the referendum, see https://ig.ft.com/sites/brexit-polling/?mhq5j=e1   10. See no2brexit.com, latest polls, particularly, show a 4% lead for remain.  11. 17.4 million out of 65 million.  5 million includes new 18 year olds, non voters from last time, 700,000 UK residents in the EU who did not get a vote. EU residents in the UK.   12. Average swing to Labour in Article 50 supporting candidate constituencies:9.14%, average swing to Labour in Article 50 non-supporting candidate constituencies: 14.4%.  13. Fact   14. 2,050=750,000/365.  18-24 turnout:58%, support for remain:75%, 65+ turnout 70%, support for remain 33%. (Ipsos Mori), 15. Last three YouGov opinion polls.