Input Population
  Popn ElecR  
MALE UK
FEMALE UK
ALL UK
Turnout Estimate 
Ipsos/MORI(P)
Opinium(E)
Ipsos/MORI(E)
Voting Estimate 
YouGov 27/6 ORB 6/7
  Lord Ascroft 24/6   Statistica (MALE) 23/6
  Statistica (FEMALE) 23/6   YouGov (exit poll) 23/6
Ipsos/MORI 5/8   Statistica (BOTH) 23/6
Change of mind? 
 Voted at referendum
Would vote now Remain Leave
Remain %
Leave %
DN/DNV %
ORIGINAL
REFERENDUM DATA

Remain:16,141,241
Leave:17,410,742
Electorate:46,500,001
             

 

Assume that individuals generally stay with their voting choice as they age, and that new 18 year-olds voters will vote as 18-24 year-olds did at the referendum.


Assume the following date for the introduction of  voting for the UK nationals who have been resident abroad for at least 15 years 


Assume that the government includes ~1.5 million on the electoral register already and ~1.8 million who could register who are EU citizens in the UK. 


Assume that the government includes 16-17 year-olds on the electoral register 

Assume that there is a change of mind in voting behaviour according to the polls shown below.  Details of figures available from here.
Newsnight/MORI 30/6 YouGov 21/7
YouGov 1/8 YouGov 8/8
YouGov 22/8 YouGov 30/8
YouGov 11/10 BMG 19/10
YouGov 14/3 YouGov 21/3
Latest July 2017 AVERAGE
Assume that % of the 12.9 million who did not vote in the referendum but were on the electoral register, now choose to vote.(This uses the figures from the poll selected in the adjacent box.)
 DN/DNV %
Remain
Leave
Don't know/Would not vote now
Year of introduction Year of introduction Year of introduction
Expected turnout % Expected turnout % Expected turnout %
Expected Leave:Remain ratio Expected Leave:Remain ratio Expected Leave:Remain ratio

This dashboard provides a selection of data sets and poll results so that you can try out some 'what if' questions about the likely mood of the country with respect to Brexit and what would happen if there were a second referendum. The dashboard has a set of likely assumptions already chosen. You start with the UK population on the left and that is diminished by the turnout. The population is stored in five year age-groups so that both turnout and voting can apply to the appropriate age group. There are two populations, one is the total UK 18+ population and one is the total UK 18+ electoral registered population. The second is just a fixed proportion across the age groups (46500/53945=86%) of the first because there is no easily available data on electoral register ages. The selected population is then fed into the turnout box which diminishes the numbers according to age group. 12.9 million out of 44 million did not vote at the election and the turnout was different across age-groups. The turnout by age, also, can only be estimated because age is not recorded when you vote. Then the turnout is fed into the voting box, by age-group because we know that different age-groups voted differently. That gives the basic results. The figures for 2016 should be the same as the actual vote on the day, but turnout and voting are only estimates given to the nearest whole number and population projections are those estimated for the UK from 2014 (the latest available), so there will be the usual small errors. One balancing factor has been introduced across all ages to ensure that the actual total number voting in 2016 corresponds nearly to the total shown in the Remain/Leave calculations for 2016. (That is it boosts the turnout, irrespective of actual vote preference, by 33552/32134 or adding 4.4% across all the figures - that is without bias).  This does not affect the outcome significantly, but produces a nearer estimate of the actual vote numbers.

The last box on the top line allows for people changing their minds. There have been 20+ polls since the referendum which have shown changes of mind. Actually about 9 out of 10  people have stuck to their original decision on both sides of the argument. The change-of-mind matrix I have selected is the average of the polls I have included.

The second line enables you to chose alternatives that may either be implemented by government or will happen over time anyway. The first box suggests that people broadly will continue to hold the same view as they get older. That is argued in the help box in that selection. The second box assumes that the government allows the introduction of voting for those expats who have been abroad for more than 15 years. That is part of the government's plan and more details can be seen in the help box.

The others are self-explanatory. You can select or de-select an assumption using the tick box and it will include or remove it from the results. If you click on the arrows it will provide a set of results so far, so you can check the arithmetic.

The results give the voting by age (which you can show or hide) and the adjustments due to the assumptions. If the results show a change over the years, from LEAVE to REMAIN an estimate of when that crossover will happen is made based on the mid-year and the percentage pre and post change.   The final result can be viewed on a graph and new graphs can be put on top of the first to compare different scenarios.

You can change most numerical elements, but my number checking of inputs is poor, so if you put silly numbers in the page is likely to give you an error. If, after altering a number, the results do not change, it may be necessary to click on the RECALCULATE button. Any problems, email me: a.a.low@staffs.ac.uk.