BREXIT was not, and still is not the will of the

electorate, the citizens or the residents of the UK

IT IS NOT THE "WILL OF THE PEOPLE"

Staffordshire University Emeritus Professor, Adrian Low, analyses all the post-BREXIT

referendum polls below

 


Commentaries, notes and dashboard

19th May 2017 commentary on latest polls

 Notes on methodology/statistics

 Dashboard to model a future vote

 Adrian Low profile

 Contact information

Author's BREXIT publications

London School of Economics Independent Esharp Brexit live New European:

Reasons2Remain

 

Photo of Adrian Low

 

 

  • Prior to the referendum 58% of the polls were for Remain, 35% for Leave and 7% for a tie. 

  • Since the referendum 22 out of 36 polls, see below, 61% of them have been for Remain and 39% for Leave

  • The key factor is provided by those who did not vote.  10% more of them would now vote Remain rather than vote Leave.

  • A large group of those who supported Remain simply did not vote.

  • Polling the electorate now delivers a split decision, even closer than 23rd June 2016

  • Only during two month in the last ten (January and April 2017) were the majority of polls for Leave

  • Inclusion of the three groups of those not allowed to vote would provide an ever larger majority for Remain (16-17 year olds, UK citizens in EU and EU residents in UK).

 

 

 


List of polls analysed with links to the poll details

 

Referendum day  ►

 Day 6

note 1

29th June

 Day 7

note 8

30th June

 Day 9

note 2

2nd July

 Day 10

note 7

3rd July

 Day 13

note 3

6th July

 Day 15

note 4

8th July

 Day 30

note 5

23rd July

 Day 40

note 6

2nd Aug

 Day 46

note 9

8th August

 Day 60

note 10

23rd Aug

 Day 68

note 11

31st Aug

 Day 82

note 12

13th Sept

 Day 112

note 13

11th Oct

 Day 121

note 14

26th Oct

 Day 144

note 15

14th Nov

 Day 158

note 16

28th Nov

 Day 164

note 17

4th Dec

 Day 178

note 22

18th Dec

 Day 194

note 18

3rd Jan

 Day 200

note 19

9th Jan

 

Vote

Newsnight/

MORI poll

BMG poll

ITV/

YouGov poll of Wales

IPsos MORI poll

Independent/

ORB poll on 2nd referendum

BBC/ComRes poll to

stay in single market

YouGov/

Eurotrac poll*

Times/

YouGov poll*

Times/

YouGov poll*

Times/

YouGov poll*

Times/

YouGov poll*

Times/

YouGov poll*

Times/

YouGov poll*

BMG poll

Times/

YouGov poll*

Times/

YouGov poll*

Times/

YouGov

poll

CNN/

Comres poll

Times/

YouGov poll*

Times/

YouGov poll*

 
3.8% MAJORITY 0.27% MAJORITY 10.58% MAJORITY  6% MAJORITY  14.6% MAJORITY 9.2% MAJORITY 3.5% MAJORITY 0.61% MAJORITY 3.12% MAJORITY 0.72% MAJORITY 1.27% MAJORITY 0.60% MAJORITY 2.44% MAJORITY 1.33% MAJORITY 2.06% MAJORITY 0.97% MAJORITY 2.64% MAJORITY 0.5% MAJORITY 3.3% MAJORITY 1.7% MAJORITY 1.0% MAJORITY  

for

LEAVE

 for REMAIN  for REMAIN  for REMAIN  for REMAIN   for REMAIN  for REMAIN  for REMAIN  for LEAVE  for REMAIN  for REMAIN  for REMAIN  for LEAVE  for REMAIN  for REMAIN  for REMAIN  for REMAIN  for LEAVE  for REMAIN  for LEAVE  for LEAVE  

 

 Day 208

note 20

17th Jan

 ►

 Day 222

note 20

31st Jan

 Day 234

note 20

12th Feb

 Day 243

note 21

20th Feb

 Day 243

note 20

21st Feb

 Day 250

note 20

28th Feb

 Day 234

note 23

7th March

 Day 264

note 20

14th Mar

 Day 270

note 20

20th Mar

 Day 276

note 20

26th March

 Day 286

note 21

5th Apr

 Day 293

note 20

12th Apr

 Day 307

note 20

26th Apr

 Day 314

note 20

3rd May

 Day 322

note 20

11th May

 Day 328

note 20

17th May

Times/

YouGov

poll

Times/

YouGov poll*

Times/

YouGov poll*

 

IPsos MORI poll

Times/

YouGov poll*

Times/

YouGov poll*

l

Times/

BMG poll

 

Times/

YouGov poll*

Times/

YouGov poll*

Times/

YouGov poll*

*

IPsos MORI poll

Times/

YouGov poll*

Times/

YouGov poll*

l

Times/

YouGov poll*

Times/

YouGov poll*

Times/

YouGov poll*

*

1.1% MAJORITY 2.4% MAJORITY 2.9% MAJORITY  4.9% MAJORITY  3.0% MAJORITY  1.2% MAJORITY 1.1% MAJORITY 0.3% MAJORITY 2.2% MAJORITY 2.2% MAJORITY  2.6% MAJORITY  3.0% MAJORITY  0.07% MAJORITY 0.4% MAJORITY 1.3% MAJORITY 2.6% MAJORITY
 for LEAVE  for LEAVE  for LEAVE  for REMAIN  for REMAIN  for REMAIN  for LEAVE   for REMAIN  for REMAIN  for REMAIN  for LEAVE  for REMAIN  for LEAVE   for LEAVE  for LEAVE  for LEAVE

 


 

What did the non-voters prefer?

Close analysis of polls since June 23rd

 (note the commentary and methodology used both below and in the supporting webpage here)

 

The near-parallel lines are linear regressions on the two data sets.  Note that 13% of 12.9 million (who did not vote) is 1.67 million, i.e. greater than the majority (1.3 million) for LEAVE at the referendum

*Days 40-320 were calculated from Leave, Remain and Totals, Day 30 and 144-208 includes those who indicated they did not know what they voted/or did not vote on June 23rd.


AUTHOR : Professor Adrian Low

a.a.low@staffs.ac.uk

My own personal commentary on the referendum itself is here and my case against Brexit from a Christian perspective is argued here

2017 GENERAL ELECTION

Who should have your

VOTE?

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If 60% of those who still want to remain in the EU vote for a REMAIN candidate, 

Brexit will not happen