BREXIT was not, and still is not the will of the electorate, the citizens or the residents of the UK IT IS NOT THE "WILL OF THE PEOPLE"

Staffordshire University Emeritus Professor, Adrian Low, analyses all the post-BREXIT referendum polls below (LAST UPDATED 24th June 2017)


Whilst the UK seems to think the government will continue with Brexit, when asked

"With hindsight do you think it was right to leave the EU" , the answer, most of the time, is NO.


 

 

Commentaries, notes and dashboard

15th June 2017 commentary on latest polls

 Notes on methodology/statistics

 Dashboard to model a future vote

 Adrian Low profile

 Contact information

Author's BREXIT publications

London School of Economics(1) London School of Economics(2) Independent Esharp Brexit live New European:

Reasons2Remain

 

Photo of Adrian Low

  • Prior to the referendum 58% of the polls were for Remain, 35% for Leave and 7% for a tie. 

  • Since the referendum 26 out of 41 polls, i.e. 63% of them have been for Remain and 37% for Leave

  • One  key factor is provided by those who did not vote.  13% more of them would now vote Remain rather than vote Leave. (see second graph below).

  • A large group of those who supported Remain simply did not vote.

  • The last four polls, just before and since the election deliver a definite Remain decision,

  • Only during three months in the last twelve (January, April and May 2017) were the majority of polls for Leave

  • Inclusion of the three groups of those not allowed to vote would provide an ever larger majority for Remain (16-17 year olds, UK citizens in EU and EU residents in UK).


 
The adapted YouGov 29 polls trend graph

Adjusted YouGov polls results since August 2016.
Bars below the line are the ‘leave’ majority, bars above the line are ‘remain’ majority.
The red line showing a 2.5% rise towards Remain is a linear regression fit to the data.
 


What did the non-voters prefer?

 

 (note the commentary and methodology used both below and in the supporting webpage here)

 

The near-parallel lines are linear regressions on the two data sets.  Note that 13% of 12.9 million (who did not vote) is 1.67 million, i.e. greater than the majority (1.3 million) for LEAVE at the referendum

*Days 40-350 were calculated from Leave, Remain and Totals, Day 30 and 144-208 includes those who indicated they did not know what they voted/or did not vote on June 23rd.

 


List of polls analysed with links to the poll details

 

Referendum day  ►

 Day 6

note 1

29th June

 Day 7

note 8

30th June

 Day 9

note 2

2nd July

 Day 10

note 7

3rd July

 Day 13

note 3

6th July

 Day 15

note 4

8th July

 Day 30

note 5

23rd July

 Day 40

note 6

2nd Aug

 Day 46

note 9

8th August

 Day 60

note 10

23rd Aug

 Day 68

note 11

31st Aug

 Day 82

note 12

13th Sept

 Day 112

note 13

11th Oct

 Day 121

note 14

26th Oct

 Day 144

note 15

14th Nov

 Day 158

note 16

28th Nov

 Day 164

note 17

4th Dec

 Day 178

note 22

18th Dec

 Day 194

note 18

3rd Jan

 Day 200

note 19

9th Jan

 

Vote

Newsnight/

MORI poll

BMG poll

ITV/

YouGov poll of Wales

IPsos MORI poll

Independent/

ORB poll on 2nd referendum

BBC/ComRes poll to

stay in single market

YouGov/

Eurotrac poll*

Times/

YouGov poll*

Times/

YouGov poll*

Times/

YouGov poll*

Times/

YouGov poll*

Times/

YouGov poll*

Times/

YouGov poll*

BMG poll

Times/

YouGov poll*

Times/

YouGov poll*

Times/

YouGov

poll

CNN/

Comres poll

Times/

YouGov poll*

Times/

YouGov poll*

 
3.8% MAJORITY 0.27% MAJORITY 10.58% MAJORITY  6% MAJORITY  14.6% MAJORITY 9.2% MAJORITY 3.5% MAJORITY 0.61% MAJORITY 3.12% MAJORITY 0.72% MAJORITY 1.27% MAJORITY 0.60% MAJORITY 2.44% MAJORITY 1.33% MAJORITY 2.06% MAJORITY 0.97% MAJORITY 2.64% MAJORITY 0.5% MAJORITY 3.3% MAJORITY 1.7% MAJORITY 1.0% MAJORITY  

for

LEAVE

 for REMAIN  for REMAIN  for REMAIN  for REMAIN   for REMAIN  for REMAIN  for REMAIN  for LEAVE  for REMAIN  for REMAIN  for REMAIN  for LEAVE  for REMAIN  for REMAIN  for REMAIN  for REMAIN  for LEAVE  for REMAIN  for LEAVE  for LEAVE  

 

 Day 208

note 20

17th Jan

 ►

 Day 222

note 20

31st Jan

 Day 234

note 20

12th Feb

 Day 243

note 21

20th Feb

 Day 243

note 20

21st Feb

 Day 250

note 20

28th Feb

 Day 234

note 23

7th March

 Day 264

note 20

14th Mar

 Day 270

note 20

20th Mar

 Day 276

note 20

26th March

 Day 286

note 21

5th Apr

 Day 293

note 20

12th Apr

 Day 307

note 20

26th Apr

 Day 314

note 20

3rd May

 Day 322

note 20

11th May

 Day 328

note 20

17th May

 Day 336

note 20

25th May

 Day 342

note 20

31st May

 Day 349

note 20

7th Jun

 Day 355

note 20

13th Jun

Times/

YouGov

poll

Times/

YouGov poll*

Times/

YouGov poll*

 

IPsos MORI poll

Times/

YouGov poll*

Times/

YouGov poll*

l

Times/

BMG poll

 

Times/

YouGov poll*

Times/

YouGov poll*

Times/

YouGov poll*

*

IPsos MORI poll

Times/

YouGov poll*

Times/

YouGov poll*

Times/

YouGov poll*

Times/

YouGov poll*

Times/

YouGov poll*

*

Times/

YouGov poll*

Times/

YouGov poll*

Times/

YouGov poll*

Times/

YouGov poll*

1.1% MAJORITY 2.4% MAJORITY 2.9% MAJORITY  4.9% MAJORITY  3.0% MAJORITY  1.2% MAJORITY 1.1% MAJORITY 0.3% MAJORITY 2.2% MAJORITY 0.3% MAJORITY  2.6% MAJORITY  0.7% MAJORITY  3.0% MAJORITY 0.4% MAJORITY 1.3% MAJORITY 2.6% MAJORITY 1.4% MAJORITY 4.3% MAJORITY  2.5% MAJORITY  4.1% MAJORITY
 for LEAVE  for LEAVE  for LEAVE  for REMAIN  for REMAIN  for REMAIN  for LEAVE   for REMAIN  for REMAIN  for REMAIN  for LEAVE  for LEAVE  for REMAIN   for LEAVE  for LEAVE  for LEAVE  for LEAVE   for REMAIN  for REMAIN  for REMAIN

 



AUTHOR : Professor Adrian Low

a.a.low@staffs.ac.uk

My own personal commentary on the referendum itself is here and my case against Brexit from a Christian perspective is argued here